Multipopulation Models With Quarantine and Vaccination to Study the Spatial Spread Dynamics of Mpox in the African Continent

Abstract

The African continent is facing an unprecedented epidemic due to the spread of mpox. The shortage of vaccines and the lack of quarantine policies for those infected have made it difficult to control the disease. This work presents an analysis of the dynamics of disease spread through a multipopulation compartmental Model SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered) and simulates different scenarios of spatial spread of mpox in affected African regions. We propose modified multipopulation Models SEIR and SEIQVR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Quarantine, Vaccination, and Recovered) to analyze real-world data from the current mpox outbreak in Africa. In this model, we simulate possible scenarios with quarantined and vaccinated populations to propose measures to mitigate the disease.