COVID-19 - Modeling and Parameter Estimation for Brazil and Portugal: How predictable is the future?
Abstract
This work addresses the COVID-19 pandemic on two fronts: proposing a system of ordinary differential equations to model it and fitting this model to Brazilian and Portuguese data. It presents estimations to important parameters for the infection dynamics, such as the percentage of asymptomatic individuals, and it stresses out that non-biological human aspects, for example, cultural, social, and economic, are not only impacted by the pandemic but also impact the pandemic dynamics itself. We state that, despite significant variations in the parameters, due to those human elements present in the contemporary pandemic, and despite the strong nonlinearities of the problem, wise human intervention is possible and able to minimize human losses. We show that the mortality rate does not behave as one would expect for a biological problem, independent of cultural aspects, and we also point to possible dates for the peaks of infection in both countries depending on the control of the transmissibility.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
J. D. Murray, Mathematical Biology: I. Interdisciplinay Applied Mathematics,
New York: Springer, 2002.
M. da Saude do Brasil, “Concluida a maior pesquisa brasileira sobre a covid-19,”
tech. rep., https://www.saude.gov.br/noticias/agencia-saude/47155-concluidaa-
maior-pesquisa-brasileira-sobre-a-covid-19, 2020.
N. L. Bert, A. T. Tan, and K. K. et al., “Sars-cov-2-specific t cell immunity
in cases of covid-19 and sars, and uninfected controls,” tech. rep.,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2550-z, 2020.
S. M. Kissler, C. Tedijanto, E. Goldstein, Y. H. Grad, and M. Lipsitch, “Projecting
the transmission dynamics of sars-cov-2 through the postpandemic period,”
tech. rep., https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6493/860.full, 2020.
E. C. for Disease Prevention and Control, “Download today’s data
on the geographic distribution of covid-19 cases worldwide,” tech.
rep., https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-datageographic-
distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide, 2020.
J. Spring and P. Fonseca, “Brazil likely has 12 times more coronavirus cases than
official count, study finds,” tech. rep., https://www.reuters.com/article/ushealth-
coronavirus-brazil-cases/brazil-likely-has-12-times-more-coronaviruscases-
than-official-count-study-finds-idUSKCN21V1X1, 2020.
C. for Disease Controll and Prevention, “Covid-19 pandemic planning scenarios,”
tech. rep., https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planningscenarios.
html, 2020.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5540/tcam.2021.022.04.00575
Article Metrics
Metrics powered by PLOS ALM
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Trends in Computational and Applied Mathematics
A publication of the Brazilian Society of Applied and Computational Mathematics (SBMAC)
Indexed in: